“Let’s load out the bricks, prepare the mortar, and build some walls,” says the trusty construction estimator, safe in his fortress of spreadsheets, believing the established rates of output to be as reliable as the rising sun. But here’s a truth as solid as the concrete we work with: Construction estimating isn’t an exact science. It’s more like a waltz with lady luck. Why, you ask? Because people, like our good friends Fred and Charlie, have a propensity for being delightfully, yet frustratingly unpredictable.

Picture this. It’s a crisp morning. The smell of dew clings to the air. Fred and Charlie roll out of their van, still buzzing from their nocturnal exploits. They had attended the “Annual Fruit Juice Fiesta” the night before. As much as one can party on copious amounts of fruit juice, they did. As a result, they are now proudly sporting matching sets of epic juice hangovers.

With groans reminiscent of a zombie movie, they shamble to their worksite, armed with their trusty trowels and PPE and the regret of a thousand mixed fruit cocktails. Their pace would make a sloth impatient. Bricks that usually fly up like seasoned acrobats now crawl at a tortoise’s pace. The estimated output for the day? Well, let’s just say the spreadsheet is in for a rude awakening. The estimator, reviewing the day’s progress, might just start believing in the Bermuda Triangle.

Meanwhile, a short jog away, Harry and Jim have bounced onto their site as bright-eyed and bushy-tailed as spring rabbits. They had hit the pillow early, dreaming of perfect straight lines and beautiful structures. They’re the picture of productivity, breaking the estimator’s predictions and making the impossible look easy. Watching them, you’d think construction was an Olympic sport.

Suddenly, the estimator’s reputation takes a leap. Colleagues are slapping his back, lauding his incredible foresight and stellar maths skills. The projected profits for the project look plump and juicy. There are whispers about potential holidays in Tahiti. The spreadsheet has never seemed more reliable.

And there you have it. The human variable in the grand equation of construction estimation. The late-night escapades of Fred and Charlie on one hand, and the fresh enthusiasm of Harry and Jim on the other, makes predicting project outcomes as tricky as nailing jelly to a wall.

But isn’t that the joy of it all? Albeit in some cases costly, after all, if construction estimating was as exact as 2+2, we’d lose the adventure, the stories, and the element of surprise. Besides, what other job allows you to say “Sorry, boss, the rate applied didn’t account for Fred and Charlie’s juice hangover”?

So let’s raise a glass (of water, please, no fruit juice for Fred and Charlie) to the unpredictability of construction, and to the estimators out there making sense of it all, one fruit-juice-party and Olympic-level brick-laying event at a time.

Here’s to estimating, a subtle art and not an exact science, a dance of numbers and human unpredictability. And isn’t it just wonderful that way?